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NBA Players Prop Analysis 06/11/2024

   S eason record: 38-35 Units profit: -1.6U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 1-2 Recap of last picks (03/11/2024): Hawks @ Pelicans 1. Jose Alvarado O12.5P Odd 1.88 Unibet ❌ Magic @ Mavericks 1. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.8 Sportsbet ✅ 2. Athony Black O6.5P Odd 1.8 Tab ❌ 06/11/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Magics @ Pacers 1. Goga Bidatze U10.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet Pacers is the top 3 defensive team against centers, only allow 17PPG. With this can be a blowout game early, I expect Bidatze to play under 27 minutes this game. Knicks @ Hawks 1. Zaccharie Risacher O10.5P Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes Risacher is getting more and more confident in his games, playing 30 minutes in the last 2 games and shot 13 and 15 FGA. That's a lot of shots and even if he makes 40% that could be over 10.5P. The main problem is his accuracy. But even at his current 33%, he still manage to average 9.5PPG so I expect if he shot 13-14FGA then it is more than enough to cover this. Warriors @ Celtics 1. Jru...
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NBA Players Props Analysis 20/03/2024

Top Picks for Tonight's NBA Props:

Recap of yesterday pick (19/03/2024):

Amen Thompson O13.5 P      Odd 1.86 Bet365   ✅

Just like my prediction, Amen Thompson saw a lot of playing time, with 32 minutes, recorded 10/12 FG, getting 25 points for the night. At halftime, he already scored 13 points, and continue his extremely efficient scoring throughout the night.


Tonight's NBA Props:

1. Keegan Murray O14.5 P      SAC @ TOR     Odd 1.86 Bet365

Few reasons I like this prop:

The Toronto Raptors' defensive struggles, particularly against opposing forwards, have been evident in their recent games. With key defenders and bigs sidelined (Barnes, Barrett, Poeltl and Boucher), the Raptors face challenges in containing opposing scorers, particularly small forwards. This presents an opportune situation for Murray to exploit defensive mismatches and generate scoring opportunities both inside and outside the paint, as well as several offensive rebounding opportunities that could possibly convert into points.

I expect Murray to play around 33 minutes and take 15 FGA.




2. Chet Holmgren 15+P     Jazz @ Thunder        Odd 1.75 Tab

Chet Holmgren's prop to score 15 or more points is an intriguing proposition tonight, primarily due to favorable matchups:

The Utah Jazz's defensive vulnerabilities, compounded by the absence of key players ( Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson), create favorable conditions for Holmgren to excel offensively. Their struggles in defending centers offer Holmgren good opportunities to contribute on the scoreboard. Considering Holmgren's previous success against the Jazz and the prop set slightly below his season average, there's value in betting on his ability to surpass the 15-point mark.







Expect Holmgren to see significant playing time, likely around 28 minutes, and actively seek scoring opportunities with a dozen or more field goal attempts.


3. Kevin Durant O24.5P    76ers @ Suns       Odd 1.9 Bet365

24.5 points is relatively low for a player of Kevin Durant's caliber. While the Philadelphia 76ers boast a strong defensive reputation, the absence of Joel Embiid diminishes their interior presence, potentially opening avenues for Durant to capitalize on driving opportunities. Despite sharing the floor with other prolific scorers, Durant's all-time great scoring ability and the Suns' defensive vulnerabilities against lengthy forwards make this prop enticing.

Anticipate Durant to feature prominently in the offense, likely playing over 32 minutes and attempting 18 or more field goals, supplemented by trips to the free-throw line.

4. Jonathan Kuminga O18.5P      Grizzlies @ Warriors    Odd 1.9 Bet365

Jonathan Kuminga's prop to score over 18.5 points highlights his growing impact within the Warriors' system:

Kuminga has demonstrated increased scoring consistency in recent games, averaging over 20 points per game. Despite facing a stout Memphis defense anchored by Jaren Jackson Jr., Kuminga's aggressive offensive approach and ability to draw fouls could make Jaren Jackson Jr facing foul trouble, which further present opportunities for him to exceed the proposed point threshold.

Expect Kuminga to feature prominently in the Warriors' offensive schemes, likely playing around 28 minutes and actively seeking scoring opportunities with 15 or more field goal attempts.


Reference: 

https://www.fantasypros.com/daily-fantasy/nba/fanduel-defense-vs-position.php

https://www.statmuse.com

https://propsdaily.com

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