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NBA Players Prop Analysis 06/11/2024

   S eason record: 38-35 Units profit: -1.6U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 1-2 Recap of last picks (03/11/2024): Hawks @ Pelicans 1. Jose Alvarado O12.5P Odd 1.88 Unibet ❌ Magic @ Mavericks 1. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.8 Sportsbet ✅ 2. Athony Black O6.5P Odd 1.8 Tab ❌ 06/11/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Magics @ Pacers 1. Goga Bidatze U10.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet Pacers is the top 3 defensive team against centers, only allow 17PPG. With this can be a blowout game early, I expect Bidatze to play under 27 minutes this game. Knicks @ Hawks 1. Zaccharie Risacher O10.5P Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes Risacher is getting more and more confident in his games, playing 30 minutes in the last 2 games and shot 13 and 15 FGA. That's a lot of shots and even if he makes 40% that could be over 10.5P. The main problem is his accuracy. But even at his current 33%, he still manage to average 9.5PPG so I expect if he shot 13-14FGA then it is more than enough to cover this. Warriors @ Celtics 1. Jru...
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NBA Players Props Analysis 07/04/2024

Season record: 57-43
Yesterday's record: 5-4

Just finish the first 100 picks and the result is quite promising in my opinion. The winning rate is 57%, with the average odd is a bit over 1.9, and the total units profit is over 8.6.

My goal for the next 100 bets is to reach the accuracy of 60% on similar average odd!

Recap of yesterday's picks (06/04/2024):

1. Jarrett Allen O2.5A Cavaliers @ Lakers Odd 2.4 Bet365 ✅

Allen ended with 3 assists.

2. Max Strus O17.5PRA Cavaliers @ Lakers Odd 1.9 Bet365 ❌

Strus rebounded and assisted well this game with 6r/4a, but he had an off night shooting-wise, only 2/8, and ended with 5 points.
3. Donovan Mitche7ll O3.5R Cavaliers @ Lakers Odd 1.87 Sportsbet ✅

Mitchell ended with 5 rebounds.
4. Lebron James O24.5P Cavaliers @ Lakers Odd 2.0 Sportsbet ❌

Lebron ended with 24 points.
5. Rui Hachimura O14.5P Cavaliers @ Lakers Odd 2.0 Sportsbet❌

Hachimura ended with only 7 points, and play the least among Lakers starters
6. Joel Embiid U28.5P 76ers @ Grizzlies Odd 1.86 Bet365❌

Embiid continued his great scoring streak, with 30 points in just 23 minutes. This is a bad analysis, especially when JJJ is out.
7. Clint Capela O20.5PR Hawks @ Nuggets Odd 1.8 Bet365 ✅

Capela ended with a great game, with 19 points and 12 rebounds.
8. Bogdan Bogdanovic O19.5 Hawks @ Nuggets PR Odd 1.9 Sportsbet ✅

Bogdanovic ended with 18/2, just enough for the bet.

9. Nikola Jokic O8.5A Hawks @ Nuggets Odd 1.86 Bet365 ✅

Jokic ended with 11 assists triple-double in 31 minutes.

Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated):

1. Kyrie Irving O24.5P Rockets @ Mavericks Odd 1.86 Bet365



Irving has been scoring consistently in the last few games, with and without Donicic. As he saw more playing time and shooting nearly 20 shots per game, with nearly 50% being made. Also, Kyrie is a great free throw shooter, and he will have around 4-5 extra points from the free throw line apart from the 9-10 field goals made. Rockets is also allowing the most points for PGs in the league, with over 31 points per game for the past 5 games.

2. Ivicia Zubac O1.5A Cavaliers @ Clippers Odd 2.15 Bet365

When you play with great offensive players, 1.5 assists is quite a low bench mark to pass, even if it is for centers. Plus, odd 2.15 is quite hard to miss.

3. Luka Donicic U32.5P Rockets @ Mavericks Odd 1.85 Sportsbet

Donicic will be a scoring champ this regular season, so there won't be much motivation aspect for him individually to score high. This game will likely be a blowout and I would not expect him to play more than 35 minutes. The only stat that needs to be worried about is Rockets is Donicis's favorite team and he has consistently scored 40+ points in the last 5 matchups. But I think for this period of the season, we will see less drive in the paint and less aggression from Donicic. A bet for a triple-double at odd 3.1 is also something to consider

4. Nikola Vucevic O13.5RA Bulls @ Magic Odd 2.05 Bet365

Vucevic scored a bit less than his season average, but it does not mean he is not productive on the boards and making plays. He had exceeded 13.5RA for all last 5 games. I expect him to have around 11/4 today.

5. Bam Adebayo O17.5P Heat @ Pacers Odd 1.96 Sportsbet

The Pacers is the worst team in the league at defending centers, allowing more than 30 points per game. This game is also expected to be a very close game, as it is the deciding game on who will be 6th spot (avoid play-in), and who will lose and get the 7th spot (has to play the play-in vs the 76ers with Embiid). Too much stake and the Heat will not come here to lose, and I expect Bam to play 33+ minutes.

6. Devin Booker O26.5P Pelicans @ Suns Odd 1.76 Bet365


There are a few reasons why this is attractive. Suns, Pelicans, and Lakers are fighting for the 6th spot. So this game should be competitive from the start to the end. Another reason is Booker's past 3 performances against the Pelicans, he had 58,52,52. I believe he will score around 30-35 today and lead the Suns for a home game win.

7. Victor Wembanyama O36.5 PR 76ers @ Spurs Odd 1.86 Bet365
Last time they met, Embiid scored 70 points, but Wemby also scored 33 points. The motivation factor is important in this matchup, as the youngster wants to prove himself as one of the best centers/ big men in the league. I expect Wemby to play extra hard to day on both ends of the floor. 

8. Giannis Antetokounmpo O28.5P Knicks @ Bucks Odd 1.86 Bet365
Bucks lost 3 games in a row to some of the worse team in the league. If Giannis play today (he is currently listed as questionable), I doubt he will let his team lose 4 in a row. Also, Knicks is also a team that Bucks can face in the second round so I expect Giannis to play great today, with 30+ points and a win.

9. Isiah Hartenstein O16.5PR Knicks @ Bucks Odd 1.91 Sportsbet
Hartenstein will see more playing time when facing the big lineups from the Bucks. I would not be surprised if he gets a double-double. The only concern is he may face foul trouble as his opponent is Giannis.

10. Joel Embiid U14.5 RA 76ers @ Spurs Odd 1.89 Sportsbet
Embiid will not play unnecessary minutes when his team is already up 20+ points. And when he plays, I can see his focus is mainly on scoring 30 points and when he gets his 30, I think he will get sub out. I expect Embiid stat line to be something like 30/8/3 in around 27 minutes.

11. Anthony Edwards O10.5RA Timberwolves @ Lakers Odd 1.71 Bet365
This is expected to be a close game. With other players such as Reaves or Russel RA is listed at 11.5, 10.5 seems quite low for Ant. His PRA is also a safer option 38.5.



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