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NBA Players Prop Analysis 06/11/2024

   S eason record: 38-35 Units profit: -1.6U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 1-2 Recap of last picks (03/11/2024): Hawks @ Pelicans 1. Jose Alvarado O12.5P Odd 1.88 Unibet ❌ Magic @ Mavericks 1. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.8 Sportsbet ✅ 2. Athony Black O6.5P Odd 1.8 Tab ❌ 06/11/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Magics @ Pacers 1. Goga Bidatze U10.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet Pacers is the top 3 defensive team against centers, only allow 17PPG. With this can be a blowout game early, I expect Bidatze to play under 27 minutes this game. Knicks @ Hawks 1. Zaccharie Risacher O10.5P Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes Risacher is getting more and more confident in his games, playing 30 minutes in the last 2 games and shot 13 and 15 FGA. That's a lot of shots and even if he makes 40% that could be over 10.5P. The main problem is his accuracy. But even at his current 33%, he still manage to average 9.5PPG so I expect if he shot 13-14FGA then it is more than enough to cover this. Warriors @ Celtics 1. Jru...
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NBA Players Props Analysis 04/05/2024

 Season record: 173-156

Last picks record: 11-2

Recap of last picks (03/05/2024):

1. Wendell Carter Jr O6.5R Cavaliers @ Magic Odd 1.76 Bet365✅
2. Max Strus O17.5PRA Cavaliers @ Magic Odd 1.8 Tab✅
3. Jalen Suggs O20.5PRA Cavaliers @ Magic Odd 1.88 Sportsbet✅
4. Franz Wagner O4.5A Cavaliers @ Magic Odd 1.74 Sportsbet❌
5. Derek Lively O7.5P Clippers @ Mavericks Odd 1.8 Sportsbet✅
6. Luka Donicic U33.5P Clippers @ Mavericks Odd 1.96 Sportsbet✅
7. Luka Donicic U9.5R Clippers @ Mavericks Odd 1.95 Tab✅
8. James Harden O27.5PA Clippers @ Mavericks Odd 1.8 Bet365✅
9. Ivicia Zubac O13.5P Clippers @ Mavericks Odd 1.85 Tab✅
10. Wendell Carter Jt O0.5B Cavaliers @ Magic Odd 1.85 Sportsbet✅
11. Russel Westbrook O12.5PRA Clippers @ Mavericks odd 1.86 Bet365❌
12. PJ Tucker O2.5P Clippers @ Mavericks odd 1.95 Bet365✅
13. Paul George O5.5R 11. Russel Westbrook O12.5PRA Clippers @ Mavericks odd 1.76 Sportsbet✅

Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)

1. Aaron Gordon O24.5PRA Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.84 Sportsbet
Among the Nuggets core players, Gordon is the most inconsistent guy so far. But he is a very versatile player who can do many things at an above-average level, with some aspects at an elite level. With the intensity of the playoffs, the Timberwolves would most likely try to stop players who are at the best form at the moment like Jokic, Murray and MPJ, Gordon will have a chance to take advantage and I would not be surprised if he gets close to 15/10/5. 
2. Karl Anthony Towns 8+R Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.95 Tab
8+ rebounds are very low for KAT, his rebounding stats vs Nuggets this season is 7/11/11/8, and for the playoffs 7/8/13/10. Gobert most of the time when facing Jokic will get into foul trouble, so KAT may even have some minutes/ possessions playing the 5.


3. Nikola Jokic U21.5RA Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.96 Sportsbet
The big lineup from the Wolves caused a lot of trouble for Jokic in getting rebounds and assists this season. I expect a similar trend in this game.
4. Kentavious Caldwell Pope O8.5P Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.87 Sportsbet
Wolves have a very tall lineup, which normally opens up some spaces for shooters. KCP surpassed this mark in 3/5 games vs the Timberwolves in just 29 minutes of playing time and 5.6 FGA on average, compared to 36 minutes and 8.6 FGA on average in the post season. 8.5 is therefore not a high mark to surpass for KCP. 
5. Mike Conley O2.5R Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.74 Bet365
Conley plays over 30 minutes each game so far this playoffs and has more than 3 rebounds in 4/4 games in the playoffs. As Conley has done very well against the Nuggets in the regular season, he should continue to see close to 35 minutes of playing time this game.
6. Naz Reid O11.5PR Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.76 Bet365
I believe the key here is Rudy Gobert. In the last 6/10 games vs Jokic, Gobert got 5 or more fouls, and 3 of them he got fouled out. This means Naz Reid should see more playing time when Gobert is in foul trouble.
7. Michael Porter Jr O1.5A Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 2.5 Bet365
2.5 odd is a bit high to pass, and 1.5A is not a high mark to pass. MPJ has shot way too well in the first round, and Timberwolves have to find a way to stop the Nuggets's third scoring option from the Nuggets. I expect him to not be able to shoot a lot like the first round and pass more in this match up.

8. Jamal Murray O11.5RA Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 2.05 Bet365

Murray plays around 40 minutes each game in the playoffs. With my expectation that Jokic's assist and rebound numbers will likely go down due to the unfavorable matchup, I expect Jaml Murray to get more rebounds and assists this game.

9. Jalen McDaniels O12.5PR Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.8 Bet365
This prop is very low compared to his average. I would not be surprised if gets over by points alone. Wolves needs McDaniels on the floor to guard MPJ. 
10. Karl Anthony Towns O1.5SB Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 2.6 Bet365
This odd is quite high in my opinion. Towns can be a reliable help shot blocker and with Gobert could be in foul trouble, even more chances for KAT to get more minutes.
11. Christain Braun O5.5PR Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.86 Bet365
Braun seems to see more minutes in game 1. He has performed quite well against the Wolves in the regular season, averaging nearly 7/6. Braun can help in slow down Ant.

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