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NBA Players Prop Analysis 06/11/2024

   S eason record: 38-35 Units profit: -1.6U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 1-2 Recap of last picks (03/11/2024): Hawks @ Pelicans 1. Jose Alvarado O12.5P Odd 1.88 Unibet ❌ Magic @ Mavericks 1. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.8 Sportsbet ✅ 2. Athony Black O6.5P Odd 1.8 Tab ❌ 06/11/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Magics @ Pacers 1. Goga Bidatze U10.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet Pacers is the top 3 defensive team against centers, only allow 17PPG. With this can be a blowout game early, I expect Bidatze to play under 27 minutes this game. Knicks @ Hawks 1. Zaccharie Risacher O10.5P Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes Risacher is getting more and more confident in his games, playing 30 minutes in the last 2 games and shot 13 and 15 FGA. That's a lot of shots and even if he makes 40% that could be over 10.5P. The main problem is his accuracy. But even at his current 33%, he still manage to average 9.5PPG so I expect if he shot 13-14FGA then it is more than enough to cover this. Warriors @ Celtics 1. Jru...
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NBA Players Props Analysis 07/05/2024

 Season record: 187-178

Last picks record: 4-12

Recap of last picks (06/05/2024):

1. Jaden Mcdaniels O3.5R Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.75 Ladbrokes❌
2. Karl Anthony Towns O25.5PR Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.85 Ladbrokes ✅
3. Michael Porter Jr O6.5R Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.8 Ladbrokes❌
4. Myles Turner O16.5P Pacers @ Knicks Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes✅
5. Pascal Siakam O7.5R Pacers @ Knicks Odd 2.02 Ladbrokes❌
6. Pascal Siakam O27.5PR Pacers @ Knicks Odd 1.8 Sportsbet❌
7. Christain Braun O7.5PR Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 2.08 Sportsbet❌
8. Jamal Murray O22.5P Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.96❌
9. Donte DiVincenzo O3.5R Pacers @ Knicks Odd 1.78 Sportsbet❌
10. Jalen Brunson U48.5PRA Pacers @ Knicks Odd 1.86 Bet365❌
11. Myles Turner O1.5A Pacers @ Knicks Odd 1.95 Bet365✅
12. TJ McConnell O3.5A Pacers @ Knicks Odd 1.76 Bet365❌
13. Total points O205.5 Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.8 Unibet❌
14. Mike Conley O19.5PRA Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.8 Sportsbet❌
15. Nikola Jokic O50.5PRA Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.8 Sportsbet❌
16. Rudy Gobert U12.5R Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes (VOID)
17. Rudy Gobert U25.5PR Timberwolves @ Nuggets Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes (VOID)
18. Hartenstein O21.5PRA Pacers @ Knicks Odd 1.83 Sportsbet✅

Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)

1. Luguentz Dort O5.5RA Mavericks @ Thunder Odd 1.76 Bet365
OKC needs Dort to defend Mavs guards. He needs to play more than 30 minutes. Lu Dort and Jalen Williams will play a huge role in slowing down Luka and Kyrie.
2. Josh Green O4.5P Mavericks @ Thunder Odd 2.0 Bet365
I think Josh Green may see some playing time as Mavs might need someone to contain Shai, along with DJJ. In the regular season, Josh Green has guarded Shai very well, and I expect him to see more playing time for this season.
3. Daniel Gafford O14.5PR Mavericks @ Thunder Odd 1.71 Bet365
There is no doubt Gafford can overpower Chet in the paint. In their past matchups, Gafford average around 16/11 against Chet.

4. Evan Mobley O12.5P Cavaliers @ Celtics Odd 1.86 Sportsbet
I don't expect Allen will play this game unless he is 100% healthy. KP is also out so Mobley will match up with Al Horford, who is experienced but Mobley has some advantages like athleticism and size that can help him score more than 12.5 against an older Horford. 

5. Derrick Jones Jr O8.5P Mavericks @ Thunder Odd 1.8 Sportsbet
Like 2, the key for the Mavs is to defend Shai. If they can contain Shai, the Mavs will very likely win the series without sweat. DJJ will play a big role in defending Shai. Also, Shai will most likely be DJJ's main defender, and in my opinion, Shai is not as great of a defender as his steals/ blocks stats show. 

6. Jrue Holiday O4.5R Cavaliers @ Celtics Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes
Jrue will likely play 33+ minutes this game and he will be the main defender on Mitchell. With that, 5 rebounds is not a high mark to pass.
7. Kyrie Irving O4.5R Mavericks @ Thunder Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes
Irving's rebounding numbers are 7/6/4/7/4/6 this playoffs and the top is just at 4.5. He will likely play 40+ minutes this game, as it is expected to be a close game.
8. Jalen Williams O5.5R Mavericks @ Thunder Odd 2.2 Bet365
Chet will have a hard time guarding Mavericks center and I believe other players might benefit from this. 
9. Derrick Lively O14.5PR Mavericks @ Thunder Odd 1.95 Ladbrokes
Same as Gafford, they share similar minutes and Chet may face foul trouble this game.
10. Shai Gilgeous Alexander O27.5P Mavericks @ Thunder Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes
Shai is the main player on offense by a large margin. He needs to score well for them to win against the Mavs ' firepower. 
11. Donovan Mitchell U27.5P Cavaliers @ Celtics Odd 1.96 Sportsbet
Mitchell scored 50 in his last playoffs game and he averaged 30 points on 50% shooting this season against the Celtics. But I think this number has been inflated. It's the playoffs so it's very unlikely Mitchell will shoot 50% FG. Also the rotation of Holiday, Brown, and White will guard him all game, and they all are very good defenders. I expect the Celtics will shut Mitchell down and have a blowout game early.
12. Chet Holmgren O8.5R Mavericks @ Thunder Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes
Chet's rebounding numbers against the Mavs are great, and I expect him to play 30+ minutes this game. OKC needs Chet to defend well, without Chet, OKC will have a lot of work to guard lob threats.
13. Isaac Okoro O7.5P Cavaliers @ Celtics Odd 2.02 sportsbet
Cavs need Okoro on the floor to defense. He is the top 2 defender on the team for now, I expect him to play around 30 minutes this game.
14. Isaac Okoro O2.5R Cavaliers @ Celtics Odd 1.74 sportsbet
Same as 13. 

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