NBA Players Props Analysis 14/05/2024

  Season record: 242-219

Last picks record: 11-8

Recap of last picks (13/05/2024):

Celtics @ Cavaliers

1. Evan Mobley O2.5A Odd 2.0 Bet365✅

2. Payton Pritchard O10.5PA Odd 1.9 Bet365✅

3. Luke Kornet O2.5P Odd 2.2 Bet365✅

4. Luke Kornet O2.5R Odd 1.66 Bet365✅

5. Darius Garland O3.5R Odd 2.25 Bet365❌

6. Jaylen Brown U24.5P Odd 1.87 Sportsbet❌

7. Jayson Tatum U28.5P Odd 1.85 Tab❌

8. Al Horford U7.5R Odd 1.85 Tab✅

9. Caris Lervert 4+R Odd 1.66 Sportsbet✅

10. Derrick White O3.5R Odd 1.75 Ladbrokes✅

11. Jrue Holiday U12.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes❌

12. Max Strus O4.5R Odd 1.8 Ladbrokes✅

Thunder @ Mavericks

1. Josh Giddey O1.5A Odd 1.74 Bet365✅

2. Jaylin Williams O7.5PR Odd 1.9 Sportsbet❌

3. Aaron Wiggins O6.5P Odd 1.9 Tab❌

4. PJ Washington O23.5PRA Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes✅

5. Josh Green O4.5P Odd 1.96 Sportsbet❌

6. Luka Donicic O28.5P Odd 1.85 Tab❌

7. Chet Holmgren O14.5P Odd 1.8 Bet365✅

Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)

Pacers @ Knicks 

1. Isiah Hartenstein O9.5P Odd 1.9 Bet365

Hartenstein was a bit hurt in his shoulder because of a hard fall in the first half last game, but with the series now even and now they play at home, I expect him to show up along with other starters. The Knicks starters should play 40+ minutes this game other than Achiuwa.

2. Andrew Nembhard O15.5PRA Odd 1.8 Bet365

With Nembhard now has less responsibility in guarding Brunson, I expect him to score more this game. 

3. Obi Toppin O8.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes

This is quite a low mark for Toppin, who has been playing very consistently this playoffs.

4. Myles Turner U7.5R Odd 1.8 Tab

Turner has never been a consistent rebounder, even at center. Turner and Siakam's rebounding props are at the same (7.5) but generally Siakam gets around 1.5 more rebounding chances every game. 

5. Pascal Siakam O10.5RA Odd 1.9 Bet365

Same reason as 4. In the first 2 away games at the Knicks this playoffs, he has 11RA for both occasions.

6. Precious Achiuwa O10.5PR Odd 2.0 Sportsbet

(UPDATED: Achiuwa will come off the bench, so the props move down from 13.5 to 10.5, but I still expect Achiwa to see around 22-25 minutes this game.)

Knicks need Achiuwa to step up to his role. Last game he has 14PR in just 24 minutes in a blowout game. 

7. Josh Hart U15.5P Odd 1.85 Tab

With McBride starting this game and expected to play around 30 minutes, I expect Hart to have less shooting but focus more on defense and rebounding.

Timberwolves @ Nuggets 

1. Rudy Gobert O10.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes

Goberts has not produced offensively as expected. But he plays a crucial role in defending. Even though he was getting memed online, it does not take away his value on the court. He has the highest +/- among Wolves's starters last game. He should be able to see the floor for a while. And as he is a bad free throw shooter, Denver will likely foul him for sometimes, leaving him many chances at the free throw line. 

2. Karl Anthony Towns O22.5PA Odd 22.5 Sportsbet

Towns play bad last game, really bad. But he is a very good offensive player who I don't think anyone on the Denver team can guard. The main problem with KAT is he gets into foul trouble so easily, and always commits unnecessary fouls. If he does not get into foul trouble early, I don't think that is a high benchmark at all.

3. Jaden McDaniels O2.5R Odd 1.64 Sportsbet

McDaniels rebounding number has always been very consistent. 

4. Michael Porter Jr O5.5R Odd 1.85 Tab

MPJ has not grabbed rebounds anywhere near as many as what he did in the regular season or in the first round. Last game the Nuggets only grabbed 32 rebounds, and he only grabbed 4 boards. I expect Nuggets to grab 40+ rebounds this game, MPJ can have a fair share of the defensive rebounds.

5. Aaron Gordon U24.5PRA Odd 1.95 Tab

Gordon played incredibly well last game. 1 thing about Gordon is he is quite inconsistent. I expect the Timberwolves will make some changes to force Gordon having bad shots.

6. Mike Conley O2.5R Odd 1.62 Bet365

Conley play around 40 minutes and actually rebounding quite well this playoffs. HE has only gone under 2.5 last game in the whole playoffs, that is 1/8 games.

7. Justin Holiday O4.5P Odd 1.71 Bet365

Justin Holiday should able to see the floor 20+ minutes due to his ability to shoot very well. The thing for the Nuggets is they have a better bench than the Wolves. Their second unit is not that far behind their main unit, especially with 3 starters + 2 bench players on the court. I did not see much difference in terms of output. 

8. Christain Braun O4.5P Odd 1.76 Bet365

Same for 7. Nuggets need Braun for his defensive ability.

9. Nikola Jokic U29.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365

I believe Gobert will play defense much better today. Wolves has the recipe for winning in the first 2 games, they just need to contain Jokic. 

10. Anthony Edwards O34.5PA Bet365

Ant is absolutely unstoppable. I don't see anyone on the Nuggets can contain him. The thing about him is that he is not just someone who wants 30+ every game, shooting 25+ like other superstars. He makes smart plays every time, and I think he is still very underrated as a play maker. 

11. Jamal Murray U21.5P Odd 1.9 Tab

With Nickeil Alexander-Walker starting instead of Conley, I expect Murray will have a harder time attacking the basket.

12. Nickeil Alexander Walker O9.5P Ladbrokes

Nickeil will start this game and with the importance of this game, and his assignment to guard Jamal Murray, I expect him to play around to 35 minutes.