S eason record: 38-35 Units profit: -1.6U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 1-2 Recap of last picks (03/11/2024): Hawks @ Pelicans 1. Jose Alvarado O12.5P Odd 1.88 Unibet ❌ Magic @ Mavericks 1. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.8 Sportsbet ✅ 2. Athony Black O6.5P Odd 1.8 Tab ❌ 06/11/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Magics @ Pacers 1. Goga Bidatze U10.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet Pacers is the top 3 defensive team against centers, only allow 17PPG. With this can be a blowout game early, I expect Bidatze to play under 27 minutes this game. Knicks @ Hawks 1. Zaccharie Risacher O10.5P Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes Risacher is getting more and more confident in his games, playing 30 minutes in the last 2 games and shot 13 and 15 FGA. That's a lot of shots and even if he makes 40% that could be over 10.5P. The main problem is his accuracy. But even at his current 33%, he still manage to average 9.5PPG so I expect if he shot 13-14FGA then it is more than enough to cover this. Warriors @ Celtics 1. Jru...
Season record: 250-228
Last picks record: 8-9
Recap of last picks (14/05/2024):
Pacers @ Knicks
1. Isiah Hartenstein O9.5P Odd 1.9 Bet365❌
2. Andrew Nembhard O15.5PRA Odd 1.8 Bet365✅
3. Obi Toppin O8.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes ❌
4. Myles Turner U7.5R Odd 1.8 Tab✅
5. Pascal Siakam O10.5RA Odd 1.9 Bet365❌
6. Precious Achiuwa O10.5PR Odd 2.0 Sportsbet❌
7. Josh Hart U15.5P Odd 1.85 Tab❌
Timberwolves @ Nuggets
1. Rudy Gobert O10.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes✅
2. Karl Anthony Towns O22.5PA Odd 22.5 Sportsbet✅
3. Jaden McDaniels O2.5R Odd 1.64 Sportsbet✅
4. Michael Porter Jr O5.5R Odd 1.85 Tab✅
5. Aaron Gordon U24.5PRA Odd 1.95 Tab❌
6. Mike Conley O2.5R Odd 1.62 Bet365 (VOID)
7. Justin Holiday O4.5P Odd 1.71 Bet365❌
8. Christain Braun O4.5P Odd 1.76 Bet365✅
9. Nikola Jokic U29.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365 ❌
10. Anthony Edwards O34.5PA Bet365❌
11. Jamal Murray U21.5P Odd 1.9 Tab✅
12. Nickeil Alexander Walker O9.5P Ladbrokes✅
Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)
Cavaliers @ Celtics
1. Luke Kornet O2.5R Odd 1.72 Ladbrokes
This is a very interesting prop from Ladbrokes when all other bookies have Kornet at 4.5R. It's been a few hours since and I notice this line has not changed at all. Also, I expect this to be a blowout game so Al Horford will likely not play over 30 minutes this game.
2. Jrue Holiday U14.5P Odd 1.77 Ladbrokes
This line is a bit high, considering Derrick White's line is around 13.5P. Between those 2 players, White tends to shoot more. Also, if it is a blowout game early, Jrue does not need to play more than 35 minutes.
3. Luke Kornet O3.5P Odd 1.85 Tab
Same as 1, I expect this game to be a blowout game. The Cavs is down 3-1, playing an away game vs the Celtics. I expect this to be a blowout game early, and Celtics bench will see some actions in the 3rd and 4th quarter.
4. Jayson Tatum U29.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365
I expect Tatum to play around 35 minutes this game. He does not need to score much. Once it is a blowout game, and Tatum scores around 25, he will likely go to the bench.
5. Derrick White O13.5P Odd 1.87 Tab
Celtics does not need White to show up in this series, but he needs to be in the best form for the next form, against a guard-heavy teams (Knicks or Pacers). I belive White will shoot around 12-15 FGA this game, and make around 6,7 of them, with a couple threes.
6. Sam Hauser O3.5P Odd 2.25 Bet365
Sam can shoot lights out from the bench. In the first round against the Heat, in game 5 he score 17 points in 20 minutes. It's game 5 again, and in a situation where again, a blowout is expected to happen, I would not be surprised if he gets closer to 10 points. The odd for 10+ points is currently at 13.0, a great value odd.
7. Evan Mobley O28.5PRA Odd 1.83 Bet365
1 thing is even if this is a blowout game, Mobley will still see 30+ minutes. Also, the Celtics team cannot contain Mobley, especially in the later quarters. He has not scored under 17 points in this series.
8. Jaylen Brown U7.5R Odd 1.75 Ladbrokes
7.5 is quite a high line, in a potential blowout game. Brown has gone over this line in the last 2 games, but I doubt he play more than 35 minutes this game. In game 5 last series against the Heat, he only play 25 minutes.
9. Dean Wade O1.5A Odd 2.3 Bet365
Wade will start this game. I expect him to play around 25-30 minutes.
10. Marcus Morris O3.5P Odd 1.83 Bet365
With Wade starting, I can see Morris play around 15 minutes in this game.
11. Darius Garland O3.5R Odd 2.02 Sportsbet
Garland will likely play 35+ minutes this game. With Mitchell out, he will actively go for rebounds more.
Mavericks @ Thunder
1. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365
This line is quite low for Luka standard. I understand Dort defend Luka pretty well and Luka is not at his 100%, but with this series now 2-2, and Mavs is so close to win the last game if not for Luka's poor free throw shooting, I expect Luka to play his absolute 100% this game.
2. Chet Holmgren O14.5P Odd 1.8 Bet365
In the last few games, I can see Chet improve in his defense against Gafford. And like always, the Mavs centers are not good defensive centers. Sure, they can block shots here and there, but Chet can still score at will when he try his best. He only needs to make 6 FG and a couple of free throws to go over this line, and I expect Chet to play similar minutes and production to the last game.
3. Josh Giddey O10.5PRA Odd 1.8 Bet365
Giddey has improved, his +/- has improved drastically in the last 2 games compared to his first 2 games in the series. Even though he only played 12 minutes last game, I expect Giddey to play closer to 20 minutes this game, following his recent improvement.
4. Timmy Hardaway Jr O6.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365
Hardway plays around 20 minutes from the bench. When he gets hot, he can easily score 10+ points.
5. Derrick Lively O0.5A Odd 1.5 Bet365
Lively has gone over this line last 7 games. I expect him to play 20+ minutes this game, and has around 1-2 assists.
Comments
Post a Comment