S eason record: 38-35 Units profit: -1.6U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 1-2 Recap of last picks (03/11/2024): Hawks @ Pelicans 1. Jose Alvarado O12.5P Odd 1.88 Unibet ❌ Magic @ Mavericks 1. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.8 Sportsbet ✅ 2. Athony Black O6.5P Odd 1.8 Tab ❌ 06/11/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Magics @ Pacers 1. Goga Bidatze U10.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet Pacers is the top 3 defensive team against centers, only allow 17PPG. With this can be a blowout game early, I expect Bidatze to play under 27 minutes this game. Knicks @ Hawks 1. Zaccharie Risacher O10.5P Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes Risacher is getting more and more confident in his games, playing 30 minutes in the last 2 games and shot 13 and 15 FGA. That's a lot of shots and even if he makes 40% that could be over 10.5P. The main problem is his accuracy. But even at his current 33%, he still manage to average 9.5PPG so I expect if he shot 13-14FGA then it is more than enough to cover this. Warriors @ Celtics 1. Jru...
Season record: 272-240
Last picks record: 5-2
Recap of last picks (17/05/2024):
Positive day, with a good prediction that the Pacers will get a lot of rebounds unlike game 5, and the trend will continue with home-court advantage. Good prediction at Nesmith, Turner, Bruson, and Achiuwa, but bad prediction at Hartenstein. Lucky with Burks.
Knicks @ Pacers
1. Tyrese Haliburton 20+P Odd 1.72 Tab❌
2. Jalen Brunson U34.5P Odd 1.9 Tab✅
3. Aaron Nesmith O4.5R Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes✅
4. Myles Turner O6.5R Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes✅
5. Precious Achiuwa O4.5P Odd 1.8 Bet365✅
6. Alex Burks 10+P Odd 1.64 Bet365✅
7. Isiah Hartenstein O8.5P Odd 1.95 Bet365❌
Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)
Thunder @ Mavericks
1. Derrick Jones Jr O13.5PRA Odd 1.8 Bet365
Jones Jr has played incredibly well in the last 2 games. Scoring 17 and 19 points with +9 and +7 +/- respectively. The Mavs would try their hardest to end the series at home, where they should be more comfortable playing. I expect their starters to play a lot of minutes, and Jones Jr should play around 30+ minutes this game.
2. Josh Giddey O1.5A Odd 1.8 Bet365
Giddey has played better in the last few games. Even though he only played around 12 minutes, his impact is visibly seen. Last game he has 11/3/2 in just 12 minutes. When Giddey is off the court, SGA seems to have the ball all the time, but he is not better at facilitating the balls than Giddey, in my opinion, and when the Thunder missing shots or cannot create their offensive going, they will need Giddey to be on the court to make plays.
3. Chet Holmgren O14.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365
Holmgren averages nearly 15PPG this series, with his low being 11 and his high being 19, went over 2/5 games. Seems like it does not favor this prop but here is my analysis. In 2 games OKC wins, Chet scored 19 and 18 points. And I believe Chet will have to play more aggressively in the paint for OKC to win. Also this is the win-or-go-home game so I expect Chet will play 40+ minutes this game.
4. Kyrie Irving O19.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365
Irving has not scored consistently in this series, but so does his performance in round 1. His scoring pattern looks like that of round 1, just way lower. Here we go game 6 again, at home, last time he scored 30 points in a win. I expect him to go off again.
5. PJ Washington O7.5R Odd 2.05 Sportsbet
At a negative odd, I would 50/50 to take this bet but when we have a positive odd as such, I would take my chances. His low for rebounds this series is 6 and his high is 12, going over 3/5 games. In game 1 when he had 6 rebounds, the Mavs had a blowout loss and he only played 26 minutes. I expect him to play around 40 minutes in this crucial game.
6. Jalen Williams O5.5R Odd 1.88 Sportsbet
The key to winning is rebounds. You cannot win the games if you get outrebound. Last game OKC got 33 rebounds compared to Mavs 46. They cannot let that happen again this time. With Williams's rebounding line being only 5.5 compared to Shai's 7.5, I believe betting over on Williams's rebound line is safer, considering he will also likely play over 40 minutes this game.
This odd is too high. Irving has not grabbed a lot of boards lately, only going over 1/5 games so far this series. Just like 4, I believe Irving will play his hardest this game. In the game he went over, it's also a home game as well. In game 6 last round, he has 6 boards in 42 minutes, similar minute to what I expect from him this game.
8. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.82 Unibet
It's a home game, a win will advance the Mavs to the next round, I expect Luka Magic today. Normally I would not bet over for both stars in a team, considering if 1 went off more than likely the other will not. But Kyrie and Luka have gone off together quite consistently, both in the regular season and the playoffs so far. In game 6 last series, Luka had 28 and Kyie had 30.
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