S eason record: 38-35 Units profit: -1.6U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 1-2 Recap of last picks (03/11/2024): Hawks @ Pelicans 1. Jose Alvarado O12.5P Odd 1.88 Unibet ❌ Magic @ Mavericks 1. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.8 Sportsbet ✅ 2. Athony Black O6.5P Odd 1.8 Tab ❌ 06/11/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Magics @ Pacers 1. Goga Bidatze U10.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet Pacers is the top 3 defensive team against centers, only allow 17PPG. With this can be a blowout game early, I expect Bidatze to play under 27 minutes this game. Knicks @ Hawks 1. Zaccharie Risacher O10.5P Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes Risacher is getting more and more confident in his games, playing 30 minutes in the last 2 games and shot 13 and 15 FGA. That's a lot of shots and even if he makes 40% that could be over 10.5P. The main problem is his accuracy. But even at his current 33%, he still manage to average 9.5PPG so I expect if he shot 13-14FGA then it is more than enough to cover this. Warriors @ Celtics 1. Jru...
Season record: 287-252
Last picks record: 10-9
Recap of last picks (19/05/2024):
A minor positive day in terms of numbers, but with some bad predictions, which may need better analysis. Bad predictions are star players get points for more play time (so wrong as game 7 so of course star players will be so tightly defended and will not score as much), as we can see for Brunson, Siakam and Edwards. The other predictions are actually not bad at all, some are quite well thought. Overall not happy with the predictions, but a lesson learned from now on the elimination game analysis will likely be:
a) Under for 1st scorer points (Brunson, Siakam and Edwards)
b) Over for 2nd scorer points (Donte and KAT)
c) Under stats for bench players (Achiuwa, Braun)
Pacers @ Knicks
1. Pascal Siakam O21.5P Odd 1.84 Unibet❌
2. Andrew Nembhard O9.5P Odd 1.88 Unibet✅
3. Josh Hart O3.5A Odd 1.72 Tab✅
4. Andrew Nembhard O2.5R Odd 1.9 Tab✅
5. Jalen Brunson 35+P Odd 1.8 Bet365❌
6. Donte DiVincenzo O16.5P Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes✅
7. Donte DiVincenzo O4.5R Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes❌
8. Precious Achiuwa O11.5PR Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes❌
9. Pascal Siakam O32.5PRA Odd 1.85 Ladbrokes❌
10. Obi Toppin U8.5P Odd 1.9 Tab✅
Timberwolves @ Nuggets
1. Rudy Gobert 10+P Odd 1.8 Bet365✅
2. Nikola Jokic O12.5R Odd 1.92 Unibet ✅
3. Michael Porter Jr O13.5P Odd 1.8 Bet365❌
4. Anthony Edwards O27.5P Odd 1.77 Unibet❌
5. Mike Conley O2.5R Odd 1.72 Ladbrokes✅
6. Christain Braun U5.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes✅
7. Kentavious Caldwell Pope O2.5R Odd 1.88 Unibet✅
8. Kentavious Caldwell Pope O8.5P Odd 1.8 Tab❌
9. Karl Anthony Towns U19.5P Odd 1.75 Unibet❌
Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)
Pacers @ Celtics
1. Andrew Nembhard O10.5 Odd 1.84 Unibet
Nembhard is a very capable shooter and with the fast pace the Pacers are playing, I expect him to have 12+ FGA every game. Even if he just make 4FG, he can still go over with 1 three and 2 free throws, not a hard task for someone who likely will play nearly 35 minutes unless there is a blowout early.
2. Luke Kornet O3.5P Odd 1.72 Tab
Horford will not play 40+ minutes in the first game of the series. It's very unlikely, considering it should be a blowout game at home. I expect Horford to play around 33 minutes this game, with the remaining for Kornet.
3. Obi Toppin O11.5PR Odd 1.78 Sportsbet
The Pacers bench is actually quite deep, their second team is very reliable. And Toppin has played well in the playoffs so far, especially in the first few games of every series. I expect the same trend today.
4. Jrue Holiday O5.5R Odd 2.15 Ladbrokes
With the Pacers having a fast playstyle and shooting a lot of threes, I expect guards to have more rebounds.
5. Tyrese Haliburton U19.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes
Celtics has 2 of the best defensive guards in the league, so 20 points in the playoffs is no easy task for Haliburton. He will not have the mismatch opportunities like in the previous rounds.
6. Isiah Jackson O7.5PR Odd 1.95 Bet365
Jackson should see matching minutes with Kornet, which I believe is around 10-15, 15+ if early blowout. Jackson shows a lot in those minutes, and I expect another good game from the Pacers bench.
7. Myles Turner O1.5B Odd 1.9 Sportsbet
Turner has gone over this line the last 5/5 games. I would not be surprised if he gets 2-3 today from blocking an aging Horford, or a posterize attempt by Tatum or Brown.
8. Myles Turner O6.5R Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes
Looking back at past performances this year against the Celtics, he has grabbed 7 or more rebounds in all the games he played over 30 minutes. In the 2 games he got under, he grabbed 5 rebounds in 22 and 26 minutes respectively. As I expect Turner to play 30+ minutes this game, I expect a similar performance today from Turner.
White defensive ability will be very much needed to defend Pacers's guards. In the regular season, White has gone over this line 3/3 games that he play over 30 minutes.
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