NBA Players Props Analysis 22/05/2024

 Season record: 294-254

Last picks record: 7-2

Recap of last picks (21/05/2024):

A positive day, with 1 very bad prediction in Jackson. Should have known that he does not play much in the Pacers rotation, and when Pacers play small ball they would rather play Siakam or Toppin at the 5. Both teams have an 8 man rotation, and this should be a fun matchup, better than I expected. The Celtics obviously has better starters and star powers, but Pacers's bench is better than Celtics's.

Pacers @ Celtics

1. Andrew Nembhard O10.5 Odd 1.84 Unibet✅ 

2. Luke Kornet O3.5P Odd 1.72 Tab✅ 

3. Obi Toppin O11.5PR Odd 1.78 Sportsbet✅ 

4. Jrue Holiday O5.5R Odd 2.15 Ladbrokes✅ 

5. Tyrese Haliburton U19.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes❌

6. Isiah Jackson O7.5PR Odd 1.95 Bet365❌

7. Myles Turner O1.5B Odd 1.9 Sportsbet✅ 

8. Myles Turner O6.5R Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes✅ 

9. Derrick White O1.5SB Odd 1.74 Bet365✅ 

Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)

Mavericks @ Timberwolves

1. Daniel Gafford O14.5PR Odd 1.95 Bet365

The Mavs will have to face a much bigger lineup this series. Lively can get away when playing against Chet, but when he has to play against Gobert, KAT, and Reid, I think Lively can easily get into foul trouble. For that reason, I believe Gafford will play more minutes this game despite the Mavs playing the young player more recently.

2. Derrick Lively U7.5P Odd 1.85 Tab

Just like 1, I believe a rookie like Lively will always need a game or 2 into the series to get a feel of the game. Lively always starts slow in the opening of each series, scoring only 3 points against the Clippers and 2 points in game 1 vs the Thunder. 

3. Kyrie Irving O8.5RA Odd 1.83 Bet365

Irving has gone under this line in the last 2 games, but I think 8.5 is quite a low line for him. His O/U record for this line is 9/3, including the last 2 games. In the last matchup against the Wolves in the regular season, Kyrie has an incredible stat line of 35/8/5. However, as it is the playoffs time and we have seen how many games it took for Murray to figure out the Wolves' defense, I am more confident in his RA line than his points line. Of course I'm not saying he will struggle like Murray as he has a much better handle than Murray and also Mavs has Luka as well compared to Murray's KCP. Will be interesting to see how Irving cook the Wolves' incredible defense.

4. Derrick Jones Jr O1.5SB Odd 1.87 Unibet

Jones Jr will be very needed in defending Wolves' great offensive players like Ant of KAT, either 1 on 1 or more likely help defense. He also has gone over this line in the last 4 games, and the last 3 regular season games against the Wolves.

5. Rudy Gobert O12.5P Odd 1.9 Sportsbet

As I mentioned before, Mavs bigs are quite undersized compared to the Wolves. Gobert will have a lot of mismatched here and there. The interesting things about Gobert, that most of the time negatively affect players' scoring numbers, but the opposite for Gobert is his poor free throw %. Teams don't mind fouling him, which allows him to go to the free-throw line many times. I would not surprised if he go to the free-throw line and make 5/8 free throws.  All it takes left is a field goal per quarter and this line is good.

6. Anthony Edwards U29.5P Odd 1.85 Tab

This is an interesting odd from Tab, with other books listed at 28.5 or even 27.5 line. There are a few reasons why I like to bet the under here. As great as Ant is at scoring, he is not a selfish player at all. The main mismatch in this series is bigs, as the Mavs is very much lacking in size. But to make up for that their bigs are quite athletic and mobile on their feet, which will not allow Ant to have easy blow-by. I expect Ant to pass more this game, especially to Gobert and KAT for some easy dunks and layups.

7. Karl Anthony Towns O19.5P Odd 1.78 Sportsbet

Similar to 5, I expect the Timberwolves's bigs to show up today, as they seem to have more mismatches. Towns has always been a consistent scorer, and now he does not need to worry about being fouled out as much as last series when he had to guard Jokic. 

8. Naz Reid O13.5PR Odd 1.9 Ladbrokes

Similarly, Reid averaged 16/7 against the Mavs in the regular season. The Timberwolves has the best bigs lineup in the league, with 1 great offensive big in KAT, 1 great defensive big in Towns, then they also have Reid who can do it all as the 6th man of the year winner. Will be very interesting to see how the Mavs can stop the Wolves bigs.

9. Luka Donicic O28.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes

What the Wolves have done so well throughout this playoffs, especially in the second round is containing the supporting cast so tight that only the star player can score. Look at the Nuggets, only Jokic can score, and other role players' support is very minimal. Even in the first round, we can see Wolves don't care if Booker scores 49 points and Durant scores 33 points in game 4, none of them matter if you can lock down the other role players. And that's what OKC has not done well at all in their series, where they hold Donicic and Kyrie to inconsistent scoring games, but allow PJ Washington and then Derrick Jones Jr to score some 20+ points in each game. This is the reason why Wolves are so dangerous, they know who to lock down. They still let your team superstars score, but will have to work hard for every basket; while they lock down the supporting cast. 

10. Nickeil Alexander Walker O6.5P Odd 1.89 Unibet

Nickeil only plays 17 minutes each game in the last 2 games, but for the opening games, he will play 25 minutes. He has gone over this figure in 6/11 games so far this playoffs, with 3/5 games he went lower he has 5 or more points. 

11. Derrick Jones Jr O11.5PR Odd 1.74 Bet365

This line is quite low compared to his recent performances. He has gone over 8/12 games this playoffs. 1 main concern is he has not performed well in any series-opening game.