S eason record: 38-35 Units profit: -1.6U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 1-2 Recap of last picks (03/11/2024): Hawks @ Pelicans 1. Jose Alvarado O12.5P Odd 1.88 Unibet ❌ Magic @ Mavericks 1. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.8 Sportsbet ✅ 2. Athony Black O6.5P Odd 1.8 Tab ❌ 06/11/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Magics @ Pacers 1. Goga Bidatze U10.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet Pacers is the top 3 defensive team against centers, only allow 17PPG. With this can be a blowout game early, I expect Bidatze to play under 27 minutes this game. Knicks @ Hawks 1. Zaccharie Risacher O10.5P Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes Risacher is getting more and more confident in his games, playing 30 minutes in the last 2 games and shot 13 and 15 FGA. That's a lot of shots and even if he makes 40% that could be over 10.5P. The main problem is his accuracy. But even at his current 33%, he still manage to average 9.5PPG so I expect if he shot 13-14FGA then it is more than enough to cover this. Warriors @ Celtics 1. Jru...
Season record: 300-259
Last picks record: 6-5
Recap of last picks (22/05/2024):
The first game of the series is always the hardest to give an estimation, as we have no data yet. Overall it is another positive W-L day, with some good predictions. some lucky picks and unlucky picks. The good prediction includes the Wolves will defend the Mavs role players well and not be afraid to let the Mavs superstars score. Mismatch will be the bigs (Towns shot poorly this game but still managed to score 16, and Reid scored 15 points from the bench). Bad predictions include Lively and Walker for opposite reasons.
Mavericks @ Timberwolves
1. Daniel Gafford O14.5PR Odd 1.95 Bet365✅
2. Derrick Lively U7.5P Odd 1.85 Tab❌
3. Kyrie Irving O8.5RA Odd 1.83 Bet365✅
4. Derrick Jones Jr O1.5SB Odd 1.87 Unibet❌
5. Rudy Gobert O12.5P Odd 1.9 Sportsbet❌
6. Anthony Edwards U29.5P Odd 1.85 Tab✅
7. Karl Anthony Towns O19.5P Odd 1.78 Sportsbet ❌
8. Naz Reid O13.5PR Odd 1.9 Ladbrokes✅
9. Luka Donicic O28.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes✅
10. Nickeil Alexander Walker O6.5P Odd 1.89 Unibet❌
11. Derrick Jones Jr O11.5PR Odd 1.74 Bet365✅
Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)
Pacers @ Celtics
1. Luke Kornet O7.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365
Just like always, Al Horford will need rest in between quarters, and I expect Kornet to play 15 minutes today. Last game he only saw 13 minutes due to a close game from the beginning to the end, and ended over this line with 5/4.
2. Jrue Holiday O24.5PRA Odd 1.92 Ladbrokes
Holiday plays an incredible role in the Celtics defensive system. 1 of the best defenders in the league and I expect him to see 35+ minutes to guard Haliburton. Holiday is also a very reliable rebounder and facilitator as well, I expect a statline of around 14/6/6.
3. Tyrese Haliburton U19.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes
Haliburton scored 25 points last game in a close OT loss, which realistically just 19 without OT. When guarded by some of the best defensive guards in the league in Holiday and White, scoring is not an easy task for anyone.
4. Jayson Tatum U30.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes
This line is quite high compared to his usual lines in the playoffs (between 27.5 - 28.5). The Pacers shot 54% FG, 37% from 3s last game, which is very unlikely will happen again. The closer the game is, the more shots Tatum will take, especially in the late 4th quarter. I expect Tatum to play around 42 minutes this game.
5. Andrew Nembhard O2.5R Odd 1.75 Tab
Both teams shoot a lot from 3s. Both team centers shoot from 3 a lot also. Which means more rebounding chances for guards.
6. Pascal Siakam O23.5PA Odd 1.8 Unibet
Siakam should be able to find his spots/ mismatches in this serie, which I believe he will be the key factor for the Pacers to have any fighting chances. Compared to the guards, Celtics' interior defense is not as good. Pascal can drive into the paint with not enough contest, and even if he cannot score, he can still kick out to reliable shooters that is capable of knocking down 3s.
7. Al Horford U21.5PRA Odd 1.78 Unibet
Horford played 40 minutes last game. Very unlikely he will play close to that mark. I expect him to play 30 minutes this game, 35 minutes max.
8. Aaron Nesmith O4.5R Odd 1.83 Sportsbet
Same logic as 5. Nesmith is another very reliable guard rebounder.
9. Payton Pritchard O7.5P Odd 1.8 Tab
Pritchard scored 8 points last game, in a tight game from start to end. Im not expecting another close game this time, and in situations as such, Pritchard can score well.
10. Ben Sheppard O3.5P Odd 1.8 Tab
This line is quite low considering Sheppard play close to 20 minutes last few games. It only takes 2FGM to pass and I expect he will. In the playoffs he has gone over this line 10/14 so far, with all games he has scored 2 or more. So in the 4 games he went under, he only needs to make 1 more FGM to pass.
11. Andrew Nembhard O12.5PR Odd 1.8 Sportsbet
Very interesting line, as Nembhard has gone over this line in most of the games so far this playoffs. Compared to other starters he will likely not play as much but I still expect him to play 30+ minutes this game. 10/3 is not a hard line to pass for someone play that much, on a heavy shooting team like Pacers.
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