S eason record: 38-35 Units profit: -1.6U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 1-2 Recap of last picks (03/11/2024): Hawks @ Pelicans 1. Jose Alvarado O12.5P Odd 1.88 Unibet ❌ Magic @ Mavericks 1. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.8 Sportsbet ✅ 2. Athony Black O6.5P Odd 1.8 Tab ❌ 06/11/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Magics @ Pacers 1. Goga Bidatze U10.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet Pacers is the top 3 defensive team against centers, only allow 17PPG. With this can be a blowout game early, I expect Bidatze to play under 27 minutes this game. Knicks @ Hawks 1. Zaccharie Risacher O10.5P Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes Risacher is getting more and more confident in his games, playing 30 minutes in the last 2 games and shot 13 and 15 FGA. That's a lot of shots and even if he makes 40% that could be over 10.5P. The main problem is his accuracy. But even at his current 33%, he still manage to average 9.5PPG so I expect if he shot 13-14FGA then it is more than enough to cover this. Warriors @ Celtics 1. Jru...
Season record: 308-262
Last picks record: 8-3
Recap of last picks (23/05/2024):
Pacers @ Celtics
1. Luke Kornet O7.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365❌
2. Jrue Holiday O24.5PRA Odd 1.92 Ladbrokes✅
3. Tyrese Haliburton U19.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes✅
4. Jayson Tatum U30.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes✅
5. Andrew Nembhard O2.5R Odd 1.75 Tab❌
6. Pascal Siakam O23.5PA Odd 1.8 Unibet✅
7. Al Horford U21.5PRA Odd 1.78 Unibet✅
8. Aaron Nesmith O4.5R Odd 1.83 Sportsbet❌
9. Payton Pritchard O7.5P Odd 1.8 Tab✅
10. Ben Sheppard O3.5P Odd 1.8 Tab✅
11. Andrew Nembhard O12.5PR Odd 1.8 Sportsbet✅
Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)
Mavericks @ Timberwolves
1. Daniel Gafford O13.5PR Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes
Recently Dereck Lively has overtaken Gafford in terms of minutes, but I think this is the perfect time to bet over on Gafford. The Mavs need Gafford to defend against the Wolves talented bigs. Gafford and Lively's skillsets are quite similar, both on offense and defense, Lively is better on defense but Gafford is more than just catching lobs on offense, he can outmuscle Gobert and grab some offensive rebounds and put back dunks.
2. Derrick Jones Jr O11.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365
Jones Jr play 35 minutes last game, ended with 8/4, just enough for this line. I believe this line is still low for someone playing 35 minutes, and Jones Jr's scoring capability is evident in the second round against the OKC. He is also quite underrated in grabbing offensive rebounding, with his top-in-the-league leaping ability.
3. Tim Hardaway Jr O4.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365
This is definitely an interesting line, with his points line at 3.5, and his PR line at 4.5. He has got at least 1 rebound in all of the games so far this playoffs, and went over 5/9 so far, with some games way over. The only concern here is minutes, as he only got 10 minutes last game.
4. Mike Conley O13.5PR Odd 1.83 Bet365
Conley points line is at 10.5 and the rebounds line is at 3.5, so the 13.5PR line is quite low. He only played 31 minutes last game, and ended with 6/3. I expect him to play around 35-37 minutes this game, as Wolves would not want to drop 2 games at home.
5. Jaden McDaniels O1.5SB Odd 1.62 Bet365
McDaniels has shown how great of a 3&D player he is and will become in the last few games. The Timberwolves will need his defense even more this game, considering Ant got fatigued guarding Kyrie. I expect McDaniels to guard Kyrie this game, just like how he guarded Murray last round. He has gone over this line last 8/12 games, with all games has at least 1.
Anderson played 17 minutes last game, and ended with 11/2/2 and 0 +/-, the best in the Timberwolves bench. He actually guarded Luka very well in the first half, and when he was on the bench in the second half, Luka had a scoring streak. I expect him to play nearly 20 minutes this game.
7. Kyle Anderson O8.5PRA Odd 1.86 Bet365
Same reason as 6. Anderson is quite reliable in getting all the stats. He does not just score but also gets rebounds, and assists consistently in his limited minutes.
8. Anthony Edwards O26.5P Odd 1.73 Unibet
Edwards will bounce back, especially in important games like this. With his ability and mentality, I will not be surprised if Edwards get around 33-35 points this game.
9. Rudy Gobert Double double Odd 1.64 Bet365
Double double is a safer bet than points or rebounds alone. Gobert has the highest +/- last game for the Wolves. The Wolves need Gobert to stay on the floor to defend lob-threat from the Mavs, the second most used/ dangerous part of the Mavs game plan behind Luka and Kyrie's iso game.
10. Luka Donicic U29.5P Odd 1.87 Tab
The Wolves have enough defenders, both in quantities and quality to slow down Luka. Another thing I noticed from game 1 is Luka's knee has not healed 100% yet.
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