NBA Players Props Analysis 30/05/2024

 Season record: 345-282

Last picks record: 7-4

Recap of last picks (28/05/2024):

Another positive day with 7W and 4L, with almost all being good picks. Washington underperformed but he played 42 minutes, unlucky with Anderson and McDaniels. Every game so far has been very close, and I expect it will continue like that for the remainder of this series.

Timberwolves @ Mavericks

1. Kyle Anderson O10.5PRA Odd 1.83 Bet365❌

2. Anthony Edwards O26.5P Odd 1.74 Bet365✅

3. Karl Anthony Towns O27.5PR Odd 1.86 Bet365✅

4. Rudy Gobert U11.5R Odd 1.77 Ladbrokes✅

5. PJ Washington O6.5R Odd 1.98 Ladbrokes❌

6. PJ Washington O19.5PR Odd 1.93 Unibet❌

7. Derrick Jones Jr O3.5R Odd 1.85 Tab✅

8. Luka Donicic O8.5R Odd 1.71 Unibet✅

9. Daniel Gafford O19.5PRA Odd 1.86 Bet365✅

10. Jaden McDaniels O10.5P Odd 2.0 Bet365❌

11. Naz Reid O3.5R Odd 1.66 Bet365✅

Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)

Mavericks @ Timberwolves

1. Daniel Gafford O8.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365

Will Lively come back this game? His injury was just 4 days ago, so even if he comes back I don't think he will play more than 15 minutes, considering Gafford has been playing extremely well, especially in the second half of the game. I expect Gafford to play 25+ minutes this game, either way.

2. Daniel Gafford O5.5R Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes

Same reason as 1. Also Mavs had under 40 rebounds in 2 consecutive games, so I expect them to be more active on the glass.

3. PJ Washington O5.5R Odd 1.76 Ladbrokes

Washington has always been consistent on the glass, grabbing 5+ rebounds every game except 1 so far this playoffs. With his minutes being among the highest for both teams, I expect him to get 7+ rebounds this game.

4. Mike Conley O8.5RA Odd 1.95 Bet365

Conley will give his best every game, as this is his best chance to win the chip. He also has gone over this line in 10/14 games so far in the playoffs. I expect at least a 3/6 game from him.

5. Naz Reid O3.5R Odd 1.75 Ladbrokes

This line is low for Naz Reid, considering the Wolves bigs are always in foul trouble (either Gobert, KAT or both), which allows Reid to see 20+ minutes a game. Even more if the Wolves is trailing behind 10 points, as they need his offensive production.

6. Kyrie Irving O4.5A Odd 1.95 Bet365

With McDaniels switching to guard Kyrie for the most part last game, we can see he passes more and scores less. I think McDaniels will guard Kyrie more this game, letting Ant and Anderson guard Donicic. Last game Kyrie had 9 potential assists, compared to his average of 6.3 potential assists in the first 3 games in this series. I expect a similar trend today.

7. Luka Donicic 30+P Odd 1.83 Bet365

I expect that Ant will guard Luka this game, and with Ant being not as good of a defender as McDaniels, I expect Luka to score more. Luka has also scored very well in away games this postseason, going over this line in 6/8 away games, with 1 game under being 29.

8. Karl Anthony Towns O19.5P Odd 1.76 Unibet

Towns seems to have found his confidence back, shooting 9/13 last game and ending with 25 points. A confident Towns is a shooting machine, I will not doubt if he gets to 25 points like last game. O23.5 at odd 2.9 from Unibet is also a very tempting offer and I will risk 0.5 unit on that.

9. Rudy Gobert U11.5R Odd 1.8 Sportsbet

Rudy played 39 minutes last game and had 10 rebounds. That's the most minutes and rebounds he had in this series. There is always a certain chance of foul trouble for Gobert, and in case the Mavs is up 10+ points, especially in the last 6 minutes then Gobert will not play because of his limited offense. 

10. PJ Washington O11.5P Odd 1.72 Sportsbet

Washington scored 10 points on 3/13 shooting. That's tour date shooting and all we need is an extra 1 month then this line is completed, but in all seriousness 4 or 5 FGM for someone that is the 3rd option and play 40 minutes a game is very doable. Mavs need their role players to step up this game, we all saw how it went last game when Washington did not play up to his expectations. 

11. Jaden McDaniels O10.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365

I expect McDaniels to guard Kyrie this game, and guarding smaller guards is where he excels at. Guarding Kyrie more allows him less chances of being in foul trouble, and so more playing time. I expect a 40-minute game from McDaniels today.

12. Anthony Edwards O6.5A Odd 1.86 Sportsbet

Edwards had the most potential assists among the Wolves team by far this round, with around 14 potential assists a game. With him getting the ball more, I also expect him to have more assists. Aside from being a great scorer, his ability to get his teammates involved is something Ant does not get enough credit for.