S eason record: 38-35 Units profit: -1.6U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 1-2 Recap of last picks (03/11/2024): Hawks @ Pelicans 1. Jose Alvarado O12.5P Odd 1.88 Unibet ❌ Magic @ Mavericks 1. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.8 Sportsbet ✅ 2. Athony Black O6.5P Odd 1.8 Tab ❌ 06/11/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Magics @ Pacers 1. Goga Bidatze U10.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet Pacers is the top 3 defensive team against centers, only allow 17PPG. With this can be a blowout game early, I expect Bidatze to play under 27 minutes this game. Knicks @ Hawks 1. Zaccharie Risacher O10.5P Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes Risacher is getting more and more confident in his games, playing 30 minutes in the last 2 games and shot 13 and 15 FGA. That's a lot of shots and even if he makes 40% that could be over 10.5P. The main problem is his accuracy. But even at his current 33%, he still manage to average 9.5PPG so I expect if he shot 13-14FGA then it is more than enough to cover this. Warriors @ Celtics 1. Jru...
Season record: 370-302
Last picks record: 9-8
Recap of last picks (09/06/2024):
Mavericks @ Celtics
1. Jayson Tatum O41.5PRA Odd 1.87 Tab ❌
2. Jaylen Brown O22.5P Odd 1.83 Bet365❌
3. PJ Washington O11.5P Odd 1.8 Bet365✅
4. Daniel Gafford O12.5PR Odd 1.9 Bet365 ✅
5. Derrick Jones Jr O10.5PR Odd 1.83 Bet365✅
6. Kristaps Porzingis O23.5PRA Odd 1.89 Sportsbet❌
7. Dereck Lively O6.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes❌
8. PJ Washington 6-8R Odd 2.4 Ladbrokes✅
9. Kyrie Irving O3.5R Odd 1.8 Tab❌
10. Al Horford U9.5P Odd 1.8 Tab✅
11. Jrue Holiday O10.5RA Odd 1.85 Ladbrokes✅
12. Jaden Hardy O3.5P Odd 1.7 Ladbrokes❌
13. Sam Hauser O3.5P Odd 2.05 Ladbrokes❌
14. Payton Pritchard O3.5P Odd 1.96 Ladbrokes❌
15. Luka Donicic U32.5P Odd 1.85 Tab✅
16. Derrick White O3.5R Odd 1.8 Tab✅
17. Kyrie Irving U23.5P Odd 1.8 Tab✅
12/06's NBA Props (To be updated)
Note: Some of the picks I took were from yesterday, so the odds of them might have changed, mainly with the line of Al Horford due to KP will likely not playing, just like what I expected. The key to getting high odds is to place it immediately after the previous game ended, if a player looked injured you place over for the players that play the same role/ position and watch the odd favor your bet later on when injuries get announced.
Celtics @ Mavericks
1. Al Horford O7.5P Odd 1.85 Sportsbet
This line has changed massively to 9.5. I still find value for over 9.5. Horford will likely play close to 35 minutes this game if it is a close game.
2. Al Horford O5.5R Odd 1.6 Unibet
Similarly, this line has changed to 7.5. At 7.5 I would hesitate to bet over.
3. Jayson Tatum O41.5PRA Odd 1.9 Tab
I took this before the KP injury news, so the odds have been then lowered a bit. But as KP is out, there is even more confidence in this over-pick, as Tatum will likely have to score more.
4. Jayson Tatum O9.5R Odd 1.95 Tab
This line has not changed since I pick yesterday, at least for now. I expect another 42+ minutes like the past 2 games. It also should not be a blowout game due to the firepower of Celtics.
5. Jrue Holiday 10+ RA Odd 1.55 Tab
10.5 line is also a favorable line to bet over, but as KP might be out, it might affect Holiday assists number. But I still expect a 7/5 game from Holiday.
6. Derrick Lively O5.5R Odd 1.72 Unibet
With KP might be out I expect Lively to see more time in the paint.
7. Derrick Jones Jr O12.5PR Odd 2.02 Unibet
Just like the analysis in the first 2 games of the series, I expect Mavs role players to step up, especially at home.
8. PJ Washington O20.5PR Odd 1.81 Unibet
Similar to 7, I still expect another good game from the role players.
9. Luka Donicic U33.5P Odd 1.76 Unibet
Scoring 34+P in the playoffs is never an easy task, especially in the finals. Luka has only gone over twice this playoffs. With the Celtics' incredible defense in Holiday and White, I expect another game where Luka will have a lot of challenges making shots, especially in the second half.
10. Derrick White O23.5PRA Odd 1.83 Bet365
I expect White to shoot more today. White has been reliable all playoffs, his contribution on both ends of the floor is undeniable. I would not be surprised if he score 20 points today.
11. Daniel Gafford O8.5P Odd 2.02 Unibet
Gafford has always been consistent with his points. He has gone over this line in all but 2 games when seeing 20+ minutes. I expect him to play around 23 minutes this game, scoring 10+P.
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