NBA Players Props Analysis 06/06/2024

 Season record: 354-285

Last picks record: 9-3

Recap of last picks (28/05/2024):

Mavericks @ Timberwolves

1. Daniel Gafford O8.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365✅

2. Daniel Gafford O5.5R Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes✅

3. PJ Washington O5.5R Odd 1.76 Ladbrokes✅

4. Mike Conley O8.5RA Odd 1.95 Bet365❌

5. Naz Reid O3.5R Odd 1.75 Ladbrokes✅

6. Kyrie Irving O4.5A Odd 1.95 Bet365✅

7. Luka Donicic 30+P Odd 1.83 Bet365✅

8. Karl Anthony Towns O19.5P Odd 1.76 Unibet✅

9. Rudy Gobert U11.5R Odd 1.8 Sportsbet✅

10. PJ Washington O11.5P Odd 1.72 Sportsbet✅

11. Jaden McDaniels O10.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365❌

12. Anthony Edwards O6.5A Odd 1.86 Sportsbet❌

06/06's NBA Props (To be updated)

Mavericks @ Celtics

1. Jayson Tatum O26.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365

There are a few reasons I like this line. First, his performance against Dallas has been very well in the regular season. Mavs show no signs of ability to contain the 2 Js of Celtics, especially Tatum. He had 37 and 32 points in those 2 games, with only 20 FGA. Compared to his recent playoffs stats, I expect him to have around 25FGA this game. 

Second is the motivation factor. As much as Tatum wants a chip, I also believe he wants the Finals MVP more than everybody else. Seeing Jaylen Brown get the Conference MVP certainly is not what Tatum expected, and he will not want to lose the chance of the Finals MVP.

2. Luka Donicic O17.5RA Odd 1.8 Bet365

Luka puts up monstrous numbers in the 2 meetings they have in the regular season. As much as I want to bet over on his points, playoffs defense is always different. What will not change though, is the way Celtics run their offense. With Celtics centers shooting a lot of 3s and spending quite some time outside the paint, Mavs guards and forwards will have more rebounding chances, especially Luka.

3. Luka Donicic O8.5R Odd 1.72 Sportsbet

Same as 2.

4. Al Horford O11.5PR Odd 1.8 Bet365

Porzingis is back, but I still think Al Horford will see around 25 minutes this game. The only thing I worry about is a chance of an early blowout as if the Celtics have their best shooting day, there is nothing the Mavs can do to make it a close game, and Horford will see very few minutes. He has gone over 13/14 games this playoffs, and even in games where KP plays, he still covered this line very well.

5. Jrue Holiday O4.5A Odd 1.8 Bet365

The reason I believe this line is low, is because this line is lower than Tatum's and the same as White's. Holiday is a great defender, and also a good facilitator. In the 2 regular season games vs the Mavs, he had 6 and 7 assists comfortably.

6. PJ Washington O5.5R Odd 1.83 Sportsbet

Quite similar to 2. Mavs centers will not get that many rebounders like the previous series. Washing has consistently gotten close to 40 minutes per game this playoffs and it should not change as his assignments to guard Tatum and Brown. In the matchup against the Celtics this season, he had 7 rebounds in 35 minutes.

7. Kyrie Irving O3.5R Odd 1.8 Tab

Same reason as all others. This line is low for anyone playing 40 minutes a game.

8. Derrick White O3.5R Odd 1.75 Ladbrokes

White has not gone under this line for the past 6 games. He also had 4 and 7 rebounds in 32 and 34 minutes in the 2 regular season games against the Mavs. I believe he will play around 35 minutes in this game.

9. Jaylen Brown O22.5P Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes

Just like 1. I don't see any way Mavs can contain both Celtics' Js. Either or both will go off.

10. Derrick Jones Jr O11.5PR Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes

I expect the Celtics will play great defense on Kyrie and Luka this game. They have to. While Tatum and Brown are capable defenders, they are not on White and Holiday's level in terms of defense. I expect Jones and Washington to step up today. 

11. PJ Washington O11.5P Odd 1.96 Unibet

Same as 10. 

12. Maxi Kleber O2.5P Odd 2.0 Tab

This is quite an unexpected discovery but I think this line has huge potential. Even though Kleber has not played much when Mavs had Lively and Gafford healthy, I think this series is different where the Celtics centers stay outside of the paint, which is not the best place for Gafford or Lively. Kleber on the other hand embraces this role quite well, he can shoot 3 and guards bigs outside the perimeter better than those 2. In the regular season matchups, he played 26 and 20 minutes. While I doubt he will play that much, 15+ minutes is definitely possible. I really believe in more playing time for Kleber in this series.

13. Maxi Kleber O4.5PRA Odd 1.87 Tab

Same as 12. If Kleber saw 15+ minutes of playing time, then this line is very low.

14. Payton Pritchard O8.5PRA Odd 1.76 Bet365

This is a low line for Pritchard, as just a few games ago I can see his line for points can go to 8.5. His minutes have been reduced in the last few games, but there is always a chance of a blowout with a healthy Celtics, and even if it is not a blowout game, this line is still doable for Pritchard. He has gone way over in 2/2 regular season games, and 10/14 playoffs games so far.

15. Derrick Lively U7.5R Odd 1.74 Sportsbet

Just like what I have mentioned before, Lively will likely have to defend on the perimeter for quite some time in this game, which will likely affect his rebounding numbers. He had 8 and 4 rebounds in the 2 regular season games.

16. Daniel Gafford U15.5PRA Odd 1.76 Bet365

I expect Gafford to play 20 minutes this game, if not less. In games where he play under 20 minutes, he has only gone over once this playoffs. It's just an unfavorable matchup for him, having to guard either Porzingis or Horford outside the perimeter. 

High odd that I also take (does not count towards the daily record, just something I see interesting):

1. Luka Donicic Triple Double Odd 5.0 Bet365

2. Tatum 30+P & Brown 25+P Odd 6.75 Bet365

NBA Futures (also does not count towards the daily record, just something I see interesting):

1. Jaylen Brown O23.5PPG Odd 1.96 Sportsbet

2. Jayson Tatum O27.5PPG Odd 1.98 Sportsbet

3. PJ Washington O11.5PPG Odd 1.73 Sportsbet

4. Jayson Tatum 25+P Every game Odd 7.5 Bet365

5. PJ Washington 10+P Every game Odd 9.0 Bet365

6. Luka Donicic Double Double Every game Odd 7.0 Bet365