NBA Players Props Analysis 26/05/2024

 Season record: 323-268

Last picks record: 9-2

Recap of last picks (25/05/2024):

It's a wonderful day with another positive record, making it 8 days in a row. Good picks include every starter pick, as I expect this game to be a closer game than the line expected. Bad picks are bench players with Pritchard and Hauser.

Celtics @ Pacers

1. Andrew Nembhard O2.5R Odd 1.72 Ladbrokes✅

2. Andrew Nembhard O11.5P Odd 1.65 Unibet✅

3. Jayson Tatum 10+R Odd 1.78 Sportsbet✅

4. Payton Pritchard O7.5P Odd 1.96 Sportsbet❌

5. Derrick White O9.5RA Odd 1.95 Ladbrokes✅

6. Jaylen Brown O2.5A Odd 1.72 Ladbrokes✅

7. Pascal Siakam O3.5A Odd 1.87 Tab✅

8. Al Horford O9.5P Odd 1.8 Tab ✅

9. Sam Hauser O7.5PRA Odd 1.8 Bet365 ❌

10. Myles Turner O15.5P Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes✅ 

11. Aaron Nesmith O4.5R Odd 2.02 Unibet✅

Tonight's NBA Props (To be updated)

Timberwolves @ Mavericks

1. Daniel Gafford O13.5PR Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes

Very strange line from Ladbrokes, with most other books listed at 14.5. Pick and roll are what the Mavs excel at, and they will continue with this for the remainder of the playoffs. Both Kyrie and Luka are too good of an offensive player, which allow their centers to basically just set screen and dunk. Gafford has gone over this line for the past 6 games, and there is no signs telling this streak will end tonight.

2. Kyle Anderson O9.5PRA Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes

Anderson plays well in both games so far, and I expect him to play around 20 minutes this game. 

3. Kyle Anderson O2.5R Odd 2.1 Ladbrokes

Same as 2, his rebounding line is safer than points or assists. 

4. Anthony Edwards O5.5R Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes

Wolves need to grab more rebounds, as they should with their tall lineup, both starters and bench. They have grabbed 40 rebounds so far in both games, and this game I expect them to come out strong and dominate the boards, grabbing 45+ rebounds. When Edwards play aggressively on both sides of the floor, 6+ rebounds should not be a problem. He has gone over this line in 4/6 away games so far this playoffs.

5. Mike Conley O5.5A Odd 1.98 Unibet

Despite Conley's recent struggle in getting assists for the last 4 games, his line at 5.5 is quite low for him, he has gone over 4/5 away games. Wolves need Conley to facilitate better this incredibly important game. 

6. PJ Washington O5.5R Odd 1.84 Unibet

Mavs centers have done quite well at grabbing rebounds this series. But their centers only play at around 24 minutes mark, where as Washington, who plays around 40 minutes each game, has the same line as Gafford and 2 rebounds under Lively's line, making his line quite undervalued. Washington has always been consistent on rebounds, and along with his minutes, I expect him to cover this line comfortably.

7. Rudy Gobert Double double Odd 1.9 Sportsbet

The Timberwolves has not grabbed rebounds as well as expected. Especially Gobert, his line is going down with each game. However, Gobert is still very much needed to stay on the floor because of his defensive presence in defending lob threat. He is the only starter on the Wolves team having 0 or positive +/- in both games, and it's safe to say he will continue seeing 35+ minutes.

8. Mike Conley O2.5R Odd 1.58 Sportsbet

This line is quite low for Conley, someone who I expect to play close to 35 minutes this game. The Wolves need Conley's leadership and experience, especially when they are now down 2-0 on the road. The Wolves have grabbed a lot of rebounds this series, as their bigs do not meet expectations on the board.

9. Derrick Jones Jr O8.5P Odd 1.91 Sportsbet

Derrick Jones seems to perform well at home, at least that's what is shown in the 2nd round against the OKC. But the main reason I take his line is I believe there will be a change in the defense scheme for the Wolves. As evident in the first 2 games, the Wolves cannot let Mavs' main players score as much as the current rate. I believe the Wolves will play much harder defense on Luka and Kyrie today, so I expect other Mav's role players to step up.

10. PJ Washington O11.5P Odd 1.84 Unibet

Same as 9, I expect role players to score more today.

11. Luka Donicic U30.5P Odd 1.9 Tab

This line is quite high, considering the Wolves might learn their lesson and not let Luka control the ball and get to his zone like previous game. Like I mentioned before, I expect a much harder defense from the Wolves on Luka and Kyrie, and Mavs' role players to step up.

12. Anthony Edwards O26.5P Odd 1.74 Unibet

Edwards had no problems scoring in the first quarter of each game this series, but his problem comes around in the third quarter, which I expect him to be more determined and concentrated this game all games. When Ant is focused and has full motivation, scoring has never been his problem

13. Jaden McDaniels 10+P Odd 1.68 Tab

McDaniels had a cool off games, only scored 2 points last game after 3 straight games of 20+. Wolves need McDaniels to show up as the best 3&D player on the court, and I believe 10 points mark is not high for someone who will likely play close to 40 minutes this game. Outside of 3s, McDaniels can get easy points from transition, with his great defense.

14. Luka Donic O17.5RA Odd 1.77 Unibet

This is a low line for Luka. He has gone over this line all home games so far, with most of them at 20RA or more, except for 1 at 19. Even though I expect the Wolves to play harder defense on him to night, it should not take away his rebounding or assist number.