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Showing posts from October, 2024

NBA Players Prop Analysis 06/11/2024

   S eason record: 38-35 Units profit: -1.6U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 1-2 Recap of last picks (03/11/2024): Hawks @ Pelicans 1. Jose Alvarado O12.5P Odd 1.88 Unibet ❌ Magic @ Mavericks 1. Luka Donicic O27.5P Odd 1.8 Sportsbet ✅ 2. Athony Black O6.5P Odd 1.8 Tab ❌ 06/11/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Magics @ Pacers 1. Goga Bidatze U10.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet Pacers is the top 3 defensive team against centers, only allow 17PPG. With this can be a blowout game early, I expect Bidatze to play under 27 minutes this game. Knicks @ Hawks 1. Zaccharie Risacher O10.5P Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes Risacher is getting more and more confident in his games, playing 30 minutes in the last 2 games and shot 13 and 15 FGA. That's a lot of shots and even if he makes 40% that could be over 10.5P. The main problem is his accuracy. But even at his current 33%, he still manage to average 9.5PPG so I expect if he shot 13-14FGA then it is more than enough to cover this. Warriors @ Celtics 1. Jru...
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NBA Players Prop Analysis 01/11/2024

S eason record: 31-29 Units profit: -1.5U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 2-1 Recap of last picks (31/10/2024): Rockets @ Mavericks 1. Jabari Smith O10.5P Odd 1.83 Bet365  ✅ 2. Jabari Smith O6.5R Odd 1.83 Bet365  ❌ Spurs @ Jazz 1.Kyle Filipowski O9.5P Odd 1.95 Bet365  ✅ 01/11/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Celtics @ Hornets 1. Seth Curry O8.5P Odd 1.8 Bet365 Celtics and Hornets are both high volume outside shooting team, which will favor Seth Curry. He has always been extremely effecient, if he can get around 7FGA today and make half of them, that's am over. Magic @ Cavaliers 1. Jalen Suggs O15.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes Suggs is averaging nearly 17 points so far this season. Without Banchero, Magic will definitely have to go through Suggs more. 2. Anthony Black O8.5P Odd 1.9 Ladbrokes Hardly ever I place same bet for 2 players on the same team, but I believe this prop is low for Anthony Black. He will be a starter looking to play around 25 minutes this game. Cavs is ...
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NBA Players Prop Analysis 31/10/2024

S eason record: 29-28 Units profit: -2.3U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 5-4 Back to a positive day. Bad picks in Barrett, otherwise pretty solid pregame analysis. Recap of last picks (30/10/2024): Hawks @ Wizards 1. Alex Sarr O9.5P Odd 1.9 Tab  ✅ 2. Alex Sarr O6.5R Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes  ❌ Raptors @ Hornets 1. RJ Barrett O5.5R Odd 1.83 Pointsbet  ❌ Lakers @ Cavaliers 1. Anthony Davis U27.5P Odd 1.81 Unibet  ✅ 2. D'Angelo Russel O13.5P Odd 1.88 Sportsbet  ❌ Nets @ Grizzlies 1. Zach Edey O6.5P Odd 1.9 Bet365  ✅ Magic @ Bulls 1. Josh Giddey O17.5PA Odd 1.83 Bet365  ✅ Spurs @ Thunder 1. Chet Holmgren O2.5A Odd 2.55 Bet365  ❌ Blazers @ Clippers 1. DeAndre Ayton O14.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet  ✅ 31/10/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Rockets @ Mavericks 1. Jabari Smith O10.5P Odd 1.83 Bet365 Mavs is not a good team defensively against opponents's PF. Smith is averaging 11.5/9 for this season 17.3/7 against the Mavs for the last 6 matchups, which i...
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NBA Players Prop Analysis 30/10/2024

S eason record: 24-24 Units profit: -2.9U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 3-3 Quite unlucky with Randle and Jokic, could have been a 4-2 or 5-1 day. Recap of last picks (25/10/2024): Nuggets @ Nets 1. Nikola Jokic U28.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes  ❌ 2. Michale Porter Jr O14.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet  ✅ 3. Cam Thomas U27.5P Odd 1.81 Unibet  ✅ Mavericks @ Timberwolves 1. Julius Randle O20.5P Odd 1.78 Unibet ❌ 2. Anthony Edwards O11.5RA Odd 1.87 Pointsbet  ❌ 3. PJ Washington O5.5R Odd 2.02 Sportsbet  ✅ 30/10/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Hawks @ Wizards 1. Alex Sarr O9.5P Odd 1.9 Tab Back to back matchup between number 1 & 2 picks of this year draft. Both team have low expectations for the seasons. I expect Sarr to play 30 minutes this game. 2. Alex Sarr O6.5R Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes Same reason as 1. Pistons @ 76ers Raptors @ Hornets 1. RJ Barrett O5.5R Odd 1.83 Pointsbet With Barnes out, Olynik out, Raptors will likely play Barrett 32+ minutes this game. Lakers @ C...
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NBA Players Prop Analysis 29/10/2024

   S eason record: 21-21 Units profit: -2.5U, Average Odd: 1.88 Last picks record: 3-7 2 consecutive bad days, so I decided to take a few days break to gather more data.  Recap of last picks (25/10/2024): Nets @ Magic 1. Dennis Schroder U15.5P Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes  ❌ 2. Paolo Banchero U33.5PR Odd 1.83 Bet365 ✅ 76ers @ Raptors 1. Kelly Oubre Jr U20.5P Odd 1.83 Bet365  ❌ 2. Caleb Martin O12.5P Odd 1.90 bet365  ❌ Hornets @ Hawks 1. Dyson Daniels U10.5P Odd 1.75 Ladbrokes  ❌ Pistons @ Cavaliers 1. Jalen Duren O10.5R Odd 1.85 Ladbrokes  ❌ Pacers @ Knicks 1. Pascal Siakam O19.5P Odd 1.95 Tab  ❌ Rockets @ Grizzlies 1. Santi Aldama O9.5P Odd 1.8 Tab  ❌ 2. Zach Edey O8.5P Odd 1.75 Tab  ✅ Bulls @ Bucks 1. Coby White O3.5R Odd 1.75 Ladbrokes  ✅ 29/10/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Nuggets @ Nets 1. Nikola Jokic U28.5P Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes Nuggets just barely won over the Raptors in OT, in this game Jokic scored 40 points. Back-to-back game...
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NBA Players Prop Analysis 25/10/2024

  S eason record: 18-14 Units profit: +2.3U, Average Odd: 1.89 Last picks record: 3-6 Recap of last picks (24/10/2024): Celtics @ Wizards 1. Jonas ValanciunasJonas Valanciunas U10.5P Odd 1.80 Bet365  ❌ 2. Jonas Valanciunas U7.5R Odd 1.87 Pointsbet  ✅ 3. Bilal Coulibaly O12.5PR Odd 1.83 Sportsbet  ✅ 4. Kyle Kuzma O3.5A Odd 1.75 Ladbrokes  ❌ Spurs @ Mavericks 1. Chris Paul O10.5P Odd 1.96 Sportsbet  ❌ 2. Derrick Lively O7.5P Odd 1.76 Bet365  ✅ Timberwolves @ Kings 1. Mike Conley O2.5R Odd 2.50 Bet365  ❌ Thunder @ Nuggets 1. Aaron Gordon O13.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes  ❌   2. Lu Dort O3.5R Odd 1.95 Tab  ❌ 25/10/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Nets @ Magic 1. Dennis Schroder U15.5P Odd 1.78 Ladbrokes This is a high prop for Schroder, as most of the time last season his prop sat at 13.5. Last game was a high-scoring game against the Hawks, but in this game vs the Magic with much tighter defense, Schroder will see less shots.  2. P...
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NBA Players Prop Analysis 24/10/2024

S eason record: 15-8 Units profit: +5.3U, Average Odd: 1.89 Last picks record: 11-7 Recap of last picks (23/10/2024): Pacers @ Pistons 1. Pascal Siakam O21.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365  ❌ 2. Myles Turner O7.5R Odd 2.16 Unibet  ✅ Bucks @ 76ers 1. Giannis Antetokoumpo O28.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet  ❌ 2. Damian Lilliard U7.5A Odd 1.8 Tab  ✅ Nets @ Hawks 1. Jalen Johnson O7.5R Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes  ✅ . Cavaliers @ Raptors 1. Scottie Barnes O7.5R Odd 2.00 Tab  ❌ 2. Donovan Mitchell O25.5P Odd 1.88 Sportsbet  ❌ Magic @ Heat 1. Bam Adebayo O16.5P Odd 1.96 Sportsbet  ❌ 2. Paolo Banchero U22.5P Odd 1.95 Tab  ❌ Bulls @ Pelicans 1. Nikola Vucevic O10.5R Odd 1.85 Ladbrokes  ✅ 2. Zion Williamson O6.5R Odd 1.8 Ladbrokes VOID 3. Dejounte Murray U21.5P Odd 1.87 Pointsbet  ✅ Hornets @ Rockets 1. Nick Richards O7.5R Odd 2.05 Bet365  ✅ 2. Fred Vanvleet U17.5P Odd 1.90 Tab  ✅ Grizzlies @ Jazz 1. Santi Aldama O8.5P Odd 1.76 Bet365  ✅ 2. Jordan Clarkson ...
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NBA Players Prop Analysis 23/10/2024

  S eason record: 4-1 Last picks record: 4-1 Recap of last picks (22/10/2024): 1. Jalen Brunson U28.5P Knicks @ Celtics Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes  ✅ 2. Jrue Holiday U13.5P  Knicks @ Celtics Odd 1.85 Tab ❌ 3. Karl Anthony Towns U11.5R  Knicks @ Celtics Odd 1.83 PointsBet  ✅ 4. Julius Randle O7.5R  Timberwolves @ Lakers Odd 2.08 Sportsbet  ✅ 5. Lebron James U24.5P  Timberwolves @ Lakers Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes  ✅ 23/10/2024 's NBA Props (To be updated) Pacers @ Pistons 1. Pascal Siakam O21.5P Odd 1.86 Bet365 Pistons has always been Siakam prefered matchup. Match up with him will be an average defender in Tobias Harris. I expect a 25 point game from Siakam. 2. Myles Turner O7.5R Odd 2.16 Unibet Duren spends most of the time inside the paint, and play very physical. With the lack of size in the Pacers' bigs, I expect Turner should play 32+ minutes this game. Only 1 thing to worry is Turner might be in foul trouble. Bucks @ 76ers 1. Giannis Antetokoumpo O28.5...
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NBA Players Prop Analysis 22/10/2024

Season Record: 0-0 Last Pick record: 10-2  (17/06/2024) 22/10/2024's NBA Props (To be updated) 1. Jalen Brunson U28.5P Knicks @ Celtics Odd 1.88 Ladbrokes Demanding 29 points in the first game of the season is not an easy task for any players, including Brunson. Celtics is also a good defensive team, and only allowed Brunson to score 15 points in the first game last season. 2. Jrue Holiday U13.5P  Knicks @ Celtics Odd 1.85 Tab Celtics has great firepower, and Holiday won't need to take many shots at all. Jrue averaged 12.5 points last season. And with this being the first game, and Jrue is a 34-year-old guard who plays on both ends of the floor, and also considering Celtics has a good bench, I don't expect Jrue to play more than 30 minutes this game. 3. Karl Anthony Towns U11.5R  Knicks @ Celtics Odd 1.83 PointsBet KAT has not averaged 11 or more rebounds for the past 5 seasons. Also considering Celtics's starting Center is Al Horford, who tends to stay outside the peri...
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Finals/Season Recap

  S eason record: 392-314 Last picks record: 10-2 Recap of last picks (17/06/2024): Mavericks @ Celtics 1. Luka Donicic O16.5RA Odd 1.8 Sportsbet ✅ 2. Al Horford O17.5PRA Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes ✅ 3. Daniel Gafford O6.5P Odd 2.05 Bet365 ❌ 4. Jayson Tatum O32.5PA Odd 1.84 Unibet ✅ 5. PJ Washington O11.5P Odd 1.8 Bet365 ❌ 6. PJ Washington O5.5R Odd 1.74 Sportsbet ✅ 7. Kyrie Irving U24.5P Odd 1.8 Ladbrokes ✅ 8. Derek Lively U8.5P Odd 1.96 Sportsbet ✅ 9. Derrick White O8.5RA Odd 2.07 Unibet ✅ 10. Jayson Tatum O1.5SB Odd 1.8 Bet365 ✅ 11. Luka Donicic O1.5SB Odd 1.6 Unibet ✅ 12. Luka Donicic U9.5 1stQP Odd 2.05 Sportsbet ✅ So the NBA Finals wraps up my first year as an amateur sports bettor. Here are the stats:  Bet period: 19/03/2024 - 17/06/2024 Total bet: 706 R ecord: 392-314 (Hit rate: 55.5%) Average odd: 1.88 ROI: 4.4%  ~ 32 units won. While my first year’s performance has been solid, there's still plenty of room for improvement. This year, my goal is to achieve a 57% hit rate ...
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